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Predicting Property Prices

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Buying an investment property | Ironfish analysis and predictions

Get every bit of market prices trends before buying your investment property





Property Values – A Brief History in Time

When we look back at history, property values have not risen continuously – they don’t go up in a straight line. There will be times of flat or no growth, and times of extreme growth. We can expect this trend to continue. However, for investors, the important thing is that over long term the market will continue to rise.


Source: Residex

Historic figures shows property growth peaked during 1981, 1987, 1994 and 2003. Data from Australia’s leading research house Residex shows property values have increased consistently at about 10% per annum over the past 100 years in Australia – meaning that a well located property doubles in value about every 7 to 10 years.

There is a positive outlook about property as an investment vehicle. However there will always be someone telling you not to invest because “property values will never rise again”! Here are some simple examples:

  • In 1987, there was the fear of a “1930s- type depression” after the stock market crash
  • In the mid 90s we were told inflation was so property prices would stop rising
  • Rising oil prices, September 11 and an oversupply of investment property in the inner city areas could have been great excuses not to invest in property over the last five years

The property market as with any other market is driven by 2 fundamental forces – greed and fear. To understand the market one must be able to be rational in your thinking and look at the actual return and true statistics. Warren Buffet (perhaps the World’s greatest investor) is famous for his rational mind when it comes to making investment decisions.


What’s expected to happen in the next 10 years?

We do not have a crystal ball to predict the future but one thing we are certain about is that history repeats itself. To gain a greater insight into the future of the property market one needs to understand its 2 key components:

  • Demographics
  • Supply and Demand

There are a number of demographic trends that will change the very nature of Australia’s property markets over the next three decades. One of the most obvious demographic trends is our aging population driven by the baby boomer generation turning 60 years of age. Another trend is the growth of childless households.

To stablise the economy, Australia is going to have to “import” more people and with increased immigration will come an increased requirement for housing.



Estimated Population Growth

 

                   2006

                  2016

  Increase

Sydney

 4,308,598

  4,698,960

 390,362

Melbourne

  3,684,029

 4,025,219

 341,190

SE Queensland

 2,571,251

  3,089,914

  518,663



For every 10,000 extra people who move into a region, it creates tremendous job growth and income into a local economy. It creates the requirement for around 3,700 new suburban homes or up to 6,700 new inner city apartments. The new residents will probably spend around $70 million in general retail expenses each year and $25 million in groceries alone.

Interstate migration is also a trend over the last few years. It is driven by housing affordability and the relative strength of different state economies. Typically, Australians move from one state to another when they think that a particular state has better job prospects, better living standards and cheaper housing.

Overall there is no doubt that the long-term future for property investors is very bright. Population forecasts suggest our cities will continue to grow and this will have a huge impact on housing demand and property prices



Over the recent years, the Ironfish Group has built itself a reputation as one of Australia’s best property investment companies. Our professionalism, integrity and experienced property selection system allow us to choose the best areas for property investment and then help our clients achieve their long term financial goals in Australian property investment . So, if you want to invest in property or need sound property investment advice, contact us… or make an online enquiry today.
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